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Decision-making Intermediate

Decisions Under Uncertainty

A founder's toolkit of mental models for the high-stakes calls that don't have a clean answer.

When the data runs out, judgement takes over, and judgement can be trained. This course walks through the mental models and decision processes behind hard calls: base rates, expected value, pre-mortems, reversible vs irreversible decisions, and how to disagree-and-commit without wreckage.

Each module pairs a model with a real founder case and a live decision you bring to the room.
What you'll learn
Separate reversible from irreversible decisions and act accordingly
Use pre-mortems to kill bad calls before they happen
Reason with base rates and expected value under uncertainty
Run a clean disagree-and-commit
Book your spot
Group cohort
November group cohort
Nov 3, 2026 – Dec 1, 2026 (Europe/London)
Online (live, 4 weeks)
20 seats left
$10
Online self-paced
Self-paced (lifetime access)
Online (on-demand)
$4
Free playbook

Before you go, take a free guide

The Hard Decision Playbook

A 7-step framework for working through the decisions that keep founders up at night.